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By Bilal Hafeez Stefan Posea 14-05-2020
In: hive-indicators | COVID-19

Global COVID-19 Tracker

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In the DM world, there were not any big changes in cases. However, on deaths, Sweden saw a 4% jump, which is most likely related to a recent death spiral in care homes. This has seen an additional  $220 million fiscal spending targeted to elderly care. Neighbouring Finland saw a 3% increase, raising concerns about today’s school openings. Similarly, Japan saw a 3% increase as they plan to reopen some of its prefectures. Denmark is planning to re-open cafes and restaurants on 18 May. Curiously, new data suggests that Japan has seen a 20% drop in suicides over April – perhaps the lockdown has eased worries.

The EM world continues to see larger increases in cases. Chile leads today with an 8% increase, which has led to a quarantine order for the capital Santiago. Brazil recorded a 7% increase which means it overtakes France in the number of cases. South Africa records a 6% increase and along with Nigeria and Ghana, they are the African countries that more than doubled their cases since 1st May. Other notable increases were in India, Indonesia, and the rest of Latam countries including Mexico, Colombia and Argentina – all registering 5% increases.


Peak Waves

Today, we feature normalised charts that more clearly show which countries have contained COVID. Charts with red borders signal COVID is still not contained. In Europe, the “red” countries are UK, Sweden, and Finland. In Americas, all the countries we track are “red”. In Asia, they are Singapore, Indonesia, India, Pakistan, and the Philippines. In EMEA, they are Poland, Russia, South Africa, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Egypt, UAE, and Iran.  We also feature our usual quadrant charts too.



Figure 1: Europe 10-day Moving Average in Cases



Figure 2: Americas – 10-day Moving Average in Cases



Figure 3: Asia – 10-day Moving Average in Cases



Figure 4: EMEA – 10-day Moving Average in Cases



Figure 5: DM: COVID – Percentile (Daily Cases/Deaths)



Figure 6: EM: COVID – Percentile (Daily Cases/Deaths)



Figure 7: DM: COVID Stages – (Changes in Daily Cases/Deaths)



Figure 8: EM: COVID Stages – (Changes in Daily Cases/Deaths)



Table 1: Developed Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats



Table 2: Emerging and Newly Industrialised Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats



Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.


Stefan Posea is a Research Analyst at Macro Hive. His research interests lie in macro-financial interactions and monetary policy analysis. Stefan graduated with an MSc in Economics at Birkbeck, University of London and previously held roles in M&A and the Public Sector.

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)