• While there has been a decline in the percentage increase in COVID cases, we’d be cautious in extrapolating this out to say we are past the worst.
○ First, the virus is not a mechanical object, rather it is an unstable biological process. One moment you think it is under control, the next you see an acceleration. Singapore is a case in point. Many thought they had the virus under control, but recently there has been a surge in cases. France also saw a sudden surge – this time by including data from nursing homes (Charts 1 and 2).
○ Second, we need to be careful to distinguish between growth rates (percentage changes) and changes in absolute cases. While the growth rate has fallen for many countries, the absolute of cases are still large, which means even a small percentage increase still means a large increase in cases.
○ What matters is to bring the growth rate to zero.
• In terms of the broader stats – here are the highlights:
○ US states: New Mexico saw cases jump by 25% yesterday – Oregon saw a jump of 19% and Colorado an 18% jump. New York saw a drop in daily cases. Rhode Island and Wisconsin saw big percentage increases in deaths.
○ DM: Canada is seeing a big increase in cases (+21%), and the UK continues to see a surge (+14%). The US saw cases increase by 9% yesterday, while most other DM countries are now seeing less than 5% daily growth rates. However many countries are seeing 10%+ growth rates in deaths (US, Germany, UK, Norway, Canada and Australia).
○ EM: UAE (+20%), India (+16%) and Russia (+14%) appear to be the three EM countries to watch in terms of cases. Meanwhile, a number of countries saw deaths increase by 20%+ (Mexico, Chile, Nigeria, and South Africa)
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