• While there has been a decline in the percentage increase in COVID cases, we’d be cautious in extrapolating this out to say we are past the worst.
○ First, the virus is not a mechanical object, rather it is an unstable biological process. One moment you think it is under control, the next you see an acceleration. Singapore is a case in point. Many thought they had the virus under control, but recently there has been a surge in cases. France also saw a sudden surge – this time by including data from nursing homes (Charts 1 and 2).
○ Second, we need to be careful to distinguish between growth rates (percentage changes) and changes in absolute cases. While the growth rate has fallen for many countries, the absolute of cases are still large, which means even a small percentage increase still means a large increase in cases.
○ What matters is to bring the growth rate to zero.
• In terms of the broader stats – here are the highlights:
○ US states: New Mexico saw cases jump by 25% yesterday – Oregon saw a jump of 19% and Colorado an 18% jump. New York saw a drop in daily cases. Rhode Island and Wisconsin saw big percentage increases in deaths.
○ DM: Canada is seeing a big increase in cases (+21%), and the UK continues to see a surge (+14%). The US saw cases increase by 9% yesterday, while most other DM countries are now seeing less than 5% daily growth rates. However many countries are seeing 10%+ growth rates in deaths (US, Germany, UK, Norway, Canada and Australia).
○ EM: UAE (+20%), India (+16%) and Russia (+14%) appear to be the three EM countries to watch in terms of cases. Meanwhile, a number of countries saw deaths increase by 20%+ (Mexico, Chile, Nigeria, and South Africa)
Chart 1: Selected Asian Countries: Daily Cases per 100,000
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Chart 2: Selected DM Countries: Daily Cases per 100,000 Population
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Confirmed Cases
US States
Charts 3 & 4
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Developed Countries
Charts 5 & 6
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Emerging Countries
Charts 7 & 8
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Deaths
Developed Countries
Charts 9 & 10
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Emerging Countries
Charts 11 & 12
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Detailed Tables
US States
Table 1: US States: Key COVID-19 Stats
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Developed Countries
Table 2: Developed Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Emerging Countries
Table 3: Emerging and Newly Industrialised Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Thank you for your charts. They are great. For projected growth what is the time frame you are basing it on?
The projected cases are more like probable end-states, so I don’t need to estimate the time needed. However, if we look at recent growth rates for (say) the US – then we should get to the lower projected levels in the next few days (3-4 days) and the upper projected levels in the next few weeks (1-2 weeks). Of course, the recent social distancing recommendations could slow things down, but equally more testing could also reveal more cases too. Hope this helps.
Thank you very much for collating the charts! The hospital beds are very insightful, but perhaps could need a drill-down into ICUs? I am also monitoring #new cases / # new tests, which could be used to make cross-country comparisons
Fantastic analysis, Bilal. Here in Spain, as Olga points out, new ICU cases are also a focus as much as fatalities. However, there still remains the largely hidden scandal of care home cases and deaths, including their inclusion in any stats.