The recent death of liberal-leaning Supreme Court Justice Ruth Ginsburg has shifted political attention to who will pick the next Supreme Court Justice. Biden is naturally calling for the winner of the 2020 election to make the pick, and public polling suggests support around the idea (62% according to a weekend poll). But Trump and Republican senators are moving ahead with the nomination process. How this affects the electoral outcome is unclear.
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The recent death of liberal-leaning Supreme Court Justice Ruth Ginsburg has shifted political attention to who will pick the next Supreme Court Justice. Biden is naturally calling for the winner of the 2020 election to make the pick, and public polling suggests support around the idea (62% according to a weekend poll). But Trump and Republican senators are moving ahead with the nomination process. How this affects the electoral outcome is unclear.
Prediction markets have barely changed on Senate outcomes (Chart 2), while they show a small increase in odds for Trump for the Presidency – though this could be more noise than signal. In Trump’s favour, this could shift the focus away from COVID and galvanise his base, while for Biden, his funding has surged since Friday, and his support from the youth and women could increase. Then there are various constitutional issues around what would happen if a new Justice is not in place (leaving a potential tie in the Supreme Court) and we have a contested US election.
Polling data doesn’t cover the latest news, but the Biden was still showing a lead, albeit with a slight narrowing (Chart 1). On the battleground states, Biden has gained in Nevada, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while he has lost some support in New Hampshire, Arizona and North Carolina.
Equity markets have weakened in recent days, though it is not clear whether election news is driving this. Fears around a second COVID wave, poor communication by the Fed and concerns around banks appear to be the dominant drivers.
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
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