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By John Butler 04-06-2020
In: hive-exclusives | FX Monetary Policy & Inflation US

The Dollar Has Peaked – Part I

(5 min read)
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The past week has seen a sharp decline in the US dollar, both versus major currencies and in broad, trade-weighted terms. While this could be a mere technical pullback, I believe there is a strong possibility that this is the beginning of a large move of 10% or more. While that would be a sizeable decline, it is hardly without precedent. Indeed, the history of the dollar demonstrates that it tends to rise slowly and steadily over long periods yet declines sharply if more briefly. Those who follow financial markets closely know that this is how ‘risk assets’ in general tend to trade. While the dollar is not considered to be a risk asset, I do believe that it has risk characteristics, and it is primarily this framework that I apply in this series.

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