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By John Tierney 03-10-2019

What Investors Are Thinking: The September Scan

4 min read
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Looking at month-to-month changes, you’d be forgiven for thinking that markets simply took a breather in September after the selloff in August. The S&P 500 eked out a 0.4% gain; 10-year Treasury yields rose a modest 10 bp to 1.64%; the dollar moved about 0.2% higher against a trade-weighted basket; and oil was down 3.2% to $53.62.

September may not have lived up to its reputation as the roughest month of the year for markets, but there was still ongoing drama across multiple stages throughout it. Equities jumped early in the month on a more constructive tone from President Trump on the trade war with China. Growing expectations of easier money by the ECB and the Fed pushed rates off August lows. At one point the 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 1.90% before the Fed meeting. As optimism grew, the VIX dropped 5 percentage points to 13.7%.

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