What Are The Forecasts For A Trump Win?
(1 min read)
A lot has happened in recent weeks. Anti-police and Black Lives Matter protests have continued, which some have speculated could help Trump. Meanwhile, Trump’s negative comments towards the military and recordings of his views on COVID from earlier in the year have surfaced, which could hurt his chances. So far, polling has been relatively stable. Biden’s lead in polling is around the 7ppt mark. Forecasts for a Biden win have improved a bit, though. Prediction markets now give Biden a 60% chance of winning, the forecasting site FiveThirtyEight gives him a 75% chance, and The Economist an 84% chance.
We are also now tracking the undecided vote more closely since our last election piece. Biden’s lead is around the same as the number of undecideds. In the last election, at the same stage, Clinton only had a 1ppt lead with 10% of the public still undecided (Chart 1). Biden is therefore performing well.
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