A lot has happened in recent weeks. Anti-police and Black Lives Matter protests have continued, which some have speculated could help Trump. Meanwhile, Trump’s negative comments towards the military and recordings of his views on COVID from earlier in the year have surfaced, which could hurt his chances. So far, polling has been relatively stable. Biden’s lead in polling is around the 7ppt mark. Forecasts for a Biden win have improved a bit, though. Prediction markets now give Biden a 60% chance of winning, the forecasting site FiveThirtyEight gives him a 75% chance, and The Economist an 84% chance.
We are also now tracking the undecided vote more closely since our last election piece. Biden’s lead is around the same as the number of undecideds. In the last election, at the same stage, Clinton only had a 1ppt lead with 10% of the public still undecided (Chart 1). Biden is therefore performing well.
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A lot has happened in recent weeks. Anti-police and Black Lives Matter protests have continued, which some have speculated could help Trump. Meanwhile, Trump’s negative comments towards the military and recordings of his views on COVID from earlier in the year have surfaced, which could hurt his chances. So far, polling has been relatively stable. Biden’s lead in polling is around the 7ppt mark. Forecasts for a Biden win have improved a bit, though. Prediction markets now give Biden a 60% chance of winning, the forecasting site FiveThirtyEight gives him a 75% chance, and The Economist an 84% chance.
We are also now tracking the undecided vote more closely since our last election piece. Biden’s lead is around the same as the number of undecideds. In the last election, at the same stage, Clinton only had a 1ppt lead with 10% of the public still undecided (Chart 1). Biden is therefore performing well.
As for the battleground states, the polling has broadly been in favour of Biden. The one state where he is struggling is Florida, where he has steadily been losing his lead (Chart 3). Elsewhere, Biden has stabilised or reversed declines in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin (Charts 4, 6, and 9). Wisconsin could be a useful barometer on the public’s attitude to the Black Lives Matter protests because it was where police shot Jacob Blake. Biden has seen a notable rise in support in Arizona (Chart 8).
Financial markets appear not to be trading off US elections at the moment. Gyrations in tech stocks, merger talks and speculation over vaccine breakthroughs appear to be driving stocks. The consensus is that a Biden win would be negative for equities.
Battleground States: Biden’s Lead and the Undecideds
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)