What Are Final Expectations For The US 2020 Presidential Election?
(2 min read)
We’re almost there. We’ll get to find out (soon?) whether the polls have got it right this time around. The average of national polls give Biden a 7 point lead over Trump and state-level polls have Biden winning most the battleground states (Charts 3-11). This is reflected in model and prediction market forecasts for the election outcome. FiveThirtyEight gives Biden a 90% chance of winning, The Economist gives him 95% and PredictIt gives him 63%. The numbers are not as high for the Senate, but they still show the Democrats with a more than 50% chance of winning the Senate (Chart 1).
The Battleground States Matter
But as the 2016 election showed, it’s the state-by-state count that matters. Starting with the three states that turned the 2016 election: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, we find Biden with stable leads of between +4 to +7 points in the polls (Charts 3,4, 6). The FiveThirtyEight and Economist models have Biden winning them with odds of 90% or higher. Prediction markets are lower at 60% to 70% odds (Chart 2). The twist is that these states may not announce results until later in the week due to how they count absentee and mail-in ballots.
TO READ THIS HIVE EXCLUSIVE
SUBSCRIBE TO MACRO HIVE PRIME