In this prime tracker, we will keep you up-to-date with the latest developments globally. This week, we’ve added infographics to the table, giving a clearer breakdown of vaccination rollouts and immunity. On the details:
Global Outlook (Charts 1 & 2):
This week, an average of 15.75mn vaccinations were administered globally every day, up 9% WoW (Chart 1). North American, South American and European countries continue to lead the way (Chart 2). In all, 4.9% of the world’s population have now received at least one vaccination dose, up from 4.2% last week, and an estimated 2.9% have immunity to Covid-19.
Share of Population Vaccinated
Israel, the UK and Chile remain at the top list, having vaccinated 61%, 46.5% and 36.7% of their populations with at least one dose, respectively. The UK has vaccinated a larger share of its population with just a single shot (38.5%), while the majority of recipients in Israel are fully vaccinated (56.2%). All three countries have experienced a WoW slowdown in rollouts.
Hungary and Singapore vaccinated the largest population shares over the last week – 5.3% and 4.3%, respectively. Hungary has now vaccinated over a quarter of its population, and is using five different vaccination manufacturers. Canada also had a strong week and has now administered a first dose to 13.6% of its population. India was another standout performer, vaccinating an additional 1.5% of its population over the last seven days (equivalent to 22mn people).
South Africa has fully vaccinated all of its recipients according to the manufacturers protocol. The country is using the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which requires just a single dose. Meanwhile, Australia, Thailand, the Philippines and South Korea have predominantly administered just the first of a two-dose protocol.
Doses (Charts 3 & 4):
Daily vaccination rates in DM countries remain higher than EM countries – an estimated 490 (DM) vs 190 (EM) people per 100k population received a vaccine every day (Chart 3). However, DM rates rose just 2% WoW, compared to 30% across EMs. EU countries administered, on average, 1.4mn a day over the last seven days, down 12% WoW. The UK also suffered a 25% decline (Chart 4). Other DM economies fared better, such as the US (+11%), Japan (+29%) and New Zealand (+87%).
Combined vaccination rates across Asian countries increased most over the last week. Those early on in their vaccination rollouts, such as Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia and South Korea experienced large WoW increases. India and Singapore also impressed, with average daily doses increasing 74% and 29% WoW, respectively. Daily vaccinations in Indonesia, on the other hand, fell 35%.
On balance, LATAM countries also performed well over the week. Mexico (+83%), Argentina (+22%) and Colombia (+20%) increased the number of daily vaccinations, while there was little WoW change in Chile and Brazil. Across EMEA, Turkey (+21%) and Hungary (+52%) stood out, while Russia (-60%), the Czech Republic (-11%) and Poland (-9%) underperformed WoW.
Immunity is gained either via the vaccine (blue) or via infection over the last 6 months (orange). An estimated 43% of the UK population, and more than half of the adult population, have Covid-19 immunity. Most of this share is from vaccination-induced immunity (36%), although 7% is infection-induced. The Czech Republic has the largest share of infection-induced immunity, while Singapore has immunity almost entirely caused by the vaccine.
Projecting the current two-week vaccination rates forward, Hungary, the US, UK and Chile are set to reach the 80% immunity target in July. The UK has seen daily vaccination drop significantly in April, which has moved the forecasted date back by a few months. The dates by which some EU countries could reach the target has been pulled forward, such as Hungary and Greece.
Sam van de Schootbrugge is a macro research economist taking a one year industrial break from his Ph.D. in Economics. He has 2 years of experience working in government and has an MPhil degree in Economic Research from the University of Cambridge. His research expertise are in international finance, macroeconomics and fiscal policy.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)
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