Movies Are (Almost) Back After the Covid-19 Lull
- By Bilal Hafeez and Zain Siddiqui
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- 3 min read
2022 has been a bumper year for films released at US cinemas. Top Gun: Maverick grossed $600mn, Dr Strange 2 $400mn and The Batman $400mn (Chart 1). So far this year, total box office gross has reached $4bn. This is 236% higher than 2021 and 130% higher than 2020. And it suggests some return to normalcy after Covid restrictions limited cinema attendance. But have we returned to pre-Covid levels of cinema attendance? This could signal a complete post-Covid recovery.
At first glance, the answer appears to be ‘no’. Total grosses are still 32% lower than 2019 and 37% lower than 2018 (Chart 2). However, Covid may have fundamentally altered the behaviour of film lovers. Perhaps many now prefer to watch films on streaming services even if they feel safe visiting cinemas.
To assess this behaviour, we narrow the box office grosses to the five largest films of each year (Chart 3). This would show whether attendance to ‘event’ movies remains the same as pre-Covid. Indeed, the total box office gross of the top 5 movies of pre-pandemic 2018 and 2019 and post-pandemic 2022 were remarkably similar. This suggests a behavioural shift, either from cinemagoers preferring to stream smaller movies at home or studios preferring to release them only on streaming services – or both.
Our analysis therefore suggests willingness to attend cinemas has returned to normal. But viewing habits seem to have fundamentally shifted thanks to the rise in streaming services. The cinema appears increasingly the home of event films rather than smaller films.