By Sam van de Schootbrugge 28-04-2021
In: hive-exclusives | COVID US

Weekly Vaccination Update: US Vaccination Rates Face Largest Setback Yet

(3 min read)
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In this prime tracker, we review the latest vaccine developments globally. On the details:

Global Outlook (Charts 1 & 2, Tables 1):

  • This week, an average of 16.6mn vaccinations were administered globally every day, up 1% WoW (Chart 1). The largest improvements were seen across Asian and EMEA countries, but North American and European countries have still vaccinated larger shares of their populations (Chart 2). In all, 7.2% of the world’s population have now received at least one vaccination dose, up from 6.6% last week, and an estimated 4.9% have immunity to Covid-19.

Share of Population Vaccinated (Table 1)

  • This week, Chile fell below the US in terms of population shares vaccinated with at least one dose. Other countries at the top of the list – Hungary, Canada and Singapore – all experienced large WoW percentage point increases. Meanwhile, Germany jumps up a couple of places, and Italy moves ahead of Denmark and France. There was not much change at the bottom of the list, apart from South Korea, which vaccinated a further 1.5% of its population over the last week.
  • On the breakdown, Israel and Chile have fully vaccinated the largest population shares (58.6% and 32.3%, respectively). And, the UK vaccinated 4% of its population with a second dose, the largest WoW increase on the list. Meanwhile, Canada, Argentina, and South Korea, have mostly administered just the first of a two-dose protocol, which a new study shows reduces transmission by half.

Doses (Chart 3 & 4, Table 1):

  • The majority of Asian countries saw average daily vaccination numbers increase significantly WoW, perhaps partly driven by the fact that many are in the earlier phases of rollouts. Thailand and Japan, for example, experienced three-figure percentage increases (Table 1). On the other hand, India suffered a further 17% WoW decrease in average daily doses amid its worsening public health crisis.
  • Hungary and Poland registered large WoW increases in the number of daily doses administered. Israel and Russia also saw rollouts expand on the week – the first time this has happened for Israel since March. On average, daily doses increased 30% WoW across EMEA countries, but on a per-head-of-population basis, they are far behind DM economies (Chart 4 – note chart is lagged by 7 days).
  • Average daily doses across Latin American countries declined 16% WoW, driven by decreases in Mexico, Chile and Brazil. There were also declines in the US and EU. Indeed, the recent decline in the US (18% in 10 days) is largest setback the country has faced so far in their rollout (Chart 3). For the EU, the 5% WoW decline followed falls in Denmark, France, Germany and the Czech Republic. Meanwhile, average daily doses in Spain and Italy rose on last week.

Immunity (Table 1):

  • Immunity is gained either via the vaccine (blue) or via infection over the last 6 months (orange). Israel and the UK are the only countries in which over 50% of the total population have Covid-19 immunity. The US is next on the list, with 41% of its total population having developed immunity (Table 1). Breaking down US immunity, 32% is from the vaccine, while 9% is from infection. Sweden and the Czech Republic have the highest immunity shares from infection. Also, despite the rise in infections in India, only an estimated 6.1% have immunity to the virus.
  • Projecting the current two-week vaccination rates forward, the US, Hungary and Canada are set to reach herd immunity (80%) by July 2021. Israel’s herd immunity target date has been pushed back to March 2022 (previous January 2022), however individuals are no longer required to wear masks while outdoors in public places. The country has also shown how difficult it is to vaccinate beyond 50% of the population.

     

Sam van de Schootbrugge is a macro research economist taking a one year industrial break from his Ph.D. in Economics. He has 2 years of experience working in government and has an MPhil degree in Economic Research from the University of Cambridge. His research expertise are in international finance, macroeconomics and fiscal policy.
 
 
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)
 

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