So many different markets are experiencing large moves that it’s hard to keep track. Therefore, we are launching this new report that tracks which markets have moved the most over the past week. In order to allow comparisons across markets, we look at moves in terms of standard deviations. Put simply, we see whether last week’s move in a given market was a 1 standard deviation move, a 2 standard deviation move or something smaller.
Looking at last week, we find that six markets experienced a move greater than one standard deviation.
The biggest was US 10y bond yields which saw a 2.1 standard deviation move, followed closely by UK 10y yields (Chart 1). Meanwhile, the Japanese yen (JPY) fell 1.6 standard deviations.
Other markets that experienced more than one standard deviation (st. dev.). weekly moves were German 10 yields (+1.4 st. dev), Japan 10y yields (+1.2 st. dev.), Bitcoin (+1.2 st. dev) and the Nikkei (-1 st.dev.)
We will therefore closely follow these markets this week, notably US 10 yields and USD/JPY (Charts 2 and 3).
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)
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