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Macro Hive’s 2023 Grey Swans: The Complete List
- By Bilal Hafeez
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- 3 min read
2022 has felt full of Grey Swans, from the outbreak of war in Ukraine to the energy crisis in Europe, rampant inflation and a global central bank hiking cycle the likes of which we have not seen for a long time. Doubtless 2023 will be no different. We therefore continue our tradition of picking Grey Swans for the upcoming year.
What are Grey Swans, you ask? Well, they are close cousins to Black Swans: high-impact events that no one expects. Yet to try to predict a Black Swan lands you in something of a paradox. By definition, they are impossible to call in advance. So we prefer the Grey Swan: a low-probability, high-impact event that few expect.
And for 2023, we have been busy. Here are 10 of our favourites.
Grey Swan #1: Disney Buys TikTok
The House of the Mouse has seen a change in head honcho after Chapek’s recent departure. With Bob Iger back in the driving seat, could he return to his taste for acquisitions? If he does, what better target than a social media giant…
Grey Swan #2: Newcastle United to Win the Premier League
Set aside the World Cup for a second and think about the Premier League. Sure, Man City has Haaland, and Arsenal has a sizzling line-up and currently sits top. But what about the Magpies?
Grey Swan #3: Private Markets Finally ‘Fall Over’
Karl ponders the existence of geopoetry, spies discomforting tremors in private markets, and compares them to ‘rubble in waiting’ – a phrase inspired by an observation from earthquake expert Mustafa Erdik…
Grey Swan #4: A Very Peculiar German Coup
The US president receives an alarming message from his chief of staff about a coup d’etat among one of its closest allies – and a mysterious Case Black that the director of the CIA knows a little too much about…
Grey Swan #5: Japan Hikes Rates
It seems like wage growth in Japan has momentum, especially in the current FX backdrop. What if Japan’s radical policy experiment ends next year and rate hikes begin?
Grey Swan #6: US Banks Are Forced to Raise Capital
Phew…We dodged a bullet. FTX went under before it could become so connected with banks and markets that it became systemic. But could the event that rocked the crypto world turn out to be the canary in the coal mine?
Grey Swan #7: A Recession Like No Other
‘Two ways – gradually then suddenly.’ So Ernest Hemingway describes how one of his characters went bankrupt. Will the US economy hit recession territory in the same way?
Grey Swan #8: Elon Musk Avatars Take Twitter Offline
Several years and many millions later, Congress’ special investigator was still unable to determine the origins of the AI program that generated the Elon avatars. Not that it mattered…Twitter was dead.
Grey Swan #9: Australia’s Economy Booms
The global recession isn’t that deep. The RBA needn’t hike that much. China returns to normality surprisingly fast – oh, and makes friends with Australia again too. Is it too much to ask?
Grey Swan #10: A Final Reflection
When Bilal kindly invited me to write ‘something black swan like’ for Macro Hive’s 2023 Grey Swan series, I first took a step back to define what a black swan actually means nowadays…