If you just looked at equity and bond market behaviour over the past few days, you’d never guess we had supposedly the most important US election in a generation (Chart 1). And the results aren’t even in. Yet again, the forecasters and polls were wrong – the presidential election was much closer than expected, and the Senate is likely to remain Republican.
Moreover, the alarmists expecting militia at polling stations were mistaken. Instead, the polling process has gone remarkably smoothly given record turnout and the scale of mail-in votes. Of course, President Trump is challenging the process and the results, so things could turn ugly. But for now, it seems Congress will remain split, while the presidency has switched from Trump to Biden.
Moreover, the alarmists expecting militia at polling stations were mistaken. Instead, the polling process has gone remarkably smoothly given record turnout and the scale of mail-in votes. Of course, President Trump is challenging the process and the results, so things could turn ugly. But for now, it seems Congress will remain split, while the presidency has switched from Trump to Biden.
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