In this prime tracker, we review the latest vaccine developments globally.
On the details:
Global Outlook: This week, an average of 30.4mn vaccinations were administered globally every day, down 28% WoW (Chart 1). By continent, only Africa has vaccinated less than 40% of its population with at least one dose (5.5%), while South America has vaccinated the largest percentage share (Chart 2). Promisingly, the Global R-Number has continued to fall throughout August (Chart 3). In all, 41.3% of the world’s population have now received a vaccination dose, and 31.7% are fully vaccinated.
Share of Population Vaccinated: China remains top, and has vaccinated an estimated 88% of its population with at least one dose (Table 1). Of those, 67% have been fully vaccinated, and a further 21% have received just one dose. Spain is now ranked second, and has fully vaccinated 74.7% of its population, bettered only by Singapore (76.5%). Meanwhile, the UK and US have slipped down the list, with the former only vaccinating an additional 0.3% of its population with a first dose over the last week.
Doses: Almost all countries on the list experienced a WoW decline in the number of daily vaccinations administered. The largest percentage point declines were in Denmark, Sweden and Hungary. The global decline comes as vaccination rates in EMEA, LatAm and Asian countries have fallen WoW. By observation, EM countries appear to be two and a half months behind DM countries on rollouts (Chart 4). Meanwhile, New Zealand and Australia currently have some of the highest daily vaccination rates (Chart 5).
Booster Vaccines: A new paper in the British Medical Journal published strong evidence that vaccine efficacy wanes within six months, and recommended plans for a vaccine booster. Yesterday, in the UK, regulators approved the use of Pfizer and AZN as booster vaccines, and a number of countries now have booster programmes in place. Evidence from Israel is promising (Chart 6). Using conservative estimates from the BMJ on immunity and data from the Israeli Health Ministry, the average age of those in hospital increased significantly once immunity in the over 70s began to fall below 80%. However, since a 3rd dose was introduced at the end of July, the average age in hospital has fallen significantly (from 71 to 61). While this is likely also to be influenced by rising cases and the age of the unvaccinated, it provides tentative evidence of the importance behind booster shots for vulnerable populations. Around 93% of over 70s have now had a third dose in Israel.
Immunity: China and Singapore have the highest level of vaccination-induced Covid-19 immunity on our list. There are now six countries that have over 70% immunity, and the majority of countries are set to reach 80% in 2021.
Sam van de Schootbrugge is a Macro Research Analyst at Macro Hive, currently completing his PhD in international finance. He has a master’s degree in economic research from the University of Cambridge and has worked in research roles for over 3 years in both the public and private sector.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)
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