Is Easter a Good Time to Invest?
- By Ben Ford
- 3 min read
Easter Sunday arrives this weekend, so we take a very light-hearted look at seasonal trading. For those lucky enough to escape work over the holidays, the Friday feeling will have come a day early this week – and perhaps you left the office early, too. But if history prevails, this would have been unwise for investors!
Between 1929 and 2021, the S&P 500 has returned a loss on only 18 of the final trading days before the Easter weekend! That is, over 80% of the time, had you invested for the final trading day before Easter, you would not have lost on your investment. In fact, Easter has the most attractive investment return profile of the holidays we consider over this timeframe (Chart 1).
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Easter Sunday arrives this weekend, so we take a very light-hearted look at seasonal trading. For those lucky enough to escape work over the holidays, the Friday feeling will have come a day early this week – and perhaps you left the office early, too. But if history prevails, this would have been unwise for investors!
Between 1929 and 2021, the S&P 500 has returned a loss on only 18 of the final trading days before the Easter weekend! That is, over 80% of the time, had you invested for the final trading day before Easter, you would not have lost on your investment. In fact, Easter has the most attractive investment return profile of the holidays we consider over this timeframe (Chart 1).
In comparison, the last trading day before Christmas would see you lose money 30% of the time. The same for Chinese New Year would see you lose 45% of the time – basically a coin flip.
Adding to the impressive record, the last trading day before Easter has also seen the smallest maximum loss. The largest for Easter was a 0.1% loss, and Christmas follows with a maximum loss of 0.3%. St Patrick’s Day tops the biggest losses at 0.9%.
What About Over the Month?
You do not have to be a day trader to see holiday returns. But your likelihood of losing money this Easter increases if we turn to a one-month investment period. You have a 41% chance to lose money if you invest in the S&P 500 next trading day after Easter and hold your investment for a month.
Christmas continues as the second-best-performing holiday on a month-long view. It lost money only 32% of the time. Hanukkah led, only losing 28% of the time. Meanwhile, had you invested after the beginning of the Chinese New Year and held the investment for a month, you would have had a 44% likelihood of losing on your investment.
Easter vs Christmas
Investing in the S&P 500 for a month at Christmas would have left you best off. A simple strategy of investing in a particular holiday every year was rewarding for those celebrating Christmas through the 20th century. It would have been a painful investment since the turn of the century, however.
In contrast, this strategy has seen the most success for Easter since the turn of the century. Perhaps investors enjoy Easter more than Christmas?