By
Bilal Hafeez
16-03-2020
Fed’s Panic Cut Signals US Recession Is Here
(1 min read)
We’ve been arguing that COVID should trigger a US recession and now it seems the Fed is worried too. It’s dramatic 100bps cut yesterday brings interest rates back to crisis levels of almost zero percent. Typically, the start of Fed easings is one of the best indicators of an imminent US recession. Almost always, US unemployment surges soon after (Chart 1).
While the easings should in theory help the economy, they usually come at a time when the economy has generated its own downward momentum. This time is likely no different. And while many economists are now revising down their forecasts (see our latest US Recession Tracker [add link]), not many are talking about sharp rises in unemployment.
While the easings should in theory help the economy, they usually come at a time when the economy has generated its own downward momentum. This time is likely no different. And while many economists are now revising down their forecasts (see our latest US Recession Tracker [add link]), not many are talking about sharp rises in unemployment.
MONTHLY MEMBERSHIP
Cancel Your Trial AnytimeFree
One Month Trial
Then £39 per Month
ANNUAL MEMBERSHIP
Save 20% Compared to Monthly£7.20
per week
£374.40 per Year
MACRO HIVE PROFESSIONAL
Pricing
on request
Trade Ideas, Models & More
To read this Exclusive, please become a member
- Gain access to Hive Exclusives - the highest quality opinion-pieces & analysis by over 35 experienced researchers
- Gain access to Deep Dives - evaluation of relevant Academic paper & books in today's narrative
- Also gain access to Bilal’s Top Picks and Podcast Playlists through signing up
Have a Promotional Code? Click here to enter your code
For full access to Macro Hive's insights produced by some of the most experienced researchers in the market today
