Does Trump Have Enough Time To Overturn Biden’s Lead?
(1 min read)
• With less than a month before the US election, Biden has made gains on Trump in prediction markets. While Trump returning to the White House from hospital has seen that gain moderate – on balance Biden has seen his odds of winning the Presidency increase since Trump got diagnosed with COVID-19 (Chart 1)
• Therefore unlike the 2016 election, Trump is losing from events in the run-up to the election. Recall, that Clinton was hurt by the initial FBI investigation into her emails and then re-opening of the investigation towards the end of October 2016.
• The other notable change has been a surge in the odds of the Senate flipping to the Democrats (Chart 2). Therefore, the base case for markets is now for a Democrat clean sweep.
• While state-wide polling is not fully up-to-date, we find that in the battleground states, Biden has seen gains in Florida, Michigan, and Nevada, while he has slipped in Arizona and Ohio (though still leads).
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