By Bilal Hafeez 06-10-2020
In: hive-exclusives | Geopolitics US

Does Trump Have Enough Time To Overturn Biden’s Lead?

(1 min read)
Resize text:


• With less than a month before the US election, Biden has made gains on Trump in prediction markets. While Trump returning to the White House from hospital has seen that gain moderate – on balance Biden has seen his odds of winning the Presidency increase since Trump got diagnosed with COVID-19 (Chart 1)
• Therefore unlike the 2016 election, Trump is losing from events in the run-up to the election. Recall, that Clinton was hurt by the initial FBI investigation into her emails and then re-opening of the investigation towards the end of October 2016.
• The other notable change has been a surge in the odds of the Senate flipping to the Democrats (Chart 2). Therefore, the base case for markets is now for a Democrat clean sweep.
• While state-wide polling is not fully up-to-date, we find that in the battleground states, Biden has seen gains in Florida, Michigan, and Nevada, while he has slipped in Arizona and Ohio (though still leads).

TO READ THIS HIVE EXCLUSIVE
SUBSCRIBE TO MACRO HIVE PRIME

£39/month thereafter

For access to our Slack Chat Room, where we discuss all things markets with our researchers and subscribers

START YOUR FREE TRIAL


MOST READ

Successful Start-Ups Build Strong Founding Teams (4 min read)

By Sam van de Schootbrugge | Feb 10, 2021
Start-up success hinges on many factors, but most would agree that the skills and experience of the founder and initial founding...

Where Will the Economy Find 10 million Lost Jobs? (3 min read)

By John Tierney | Feb 08, 2021
The headline January labour market report was another downer – private payrolls rose a scant 6,000 versus the consensus...

Where Can you Get Higher Bond Yields?

By Caroline Grady | Dec 04, 2020
US yields are rising. The combination of growing optimism over a global recovery given vaccine progress, and the possibility of a US...

PREMIUM CONTENT

The Fed is Failing (1 min read)

By Bilal Hafeez | Mar 01, 2021
The Fed’s failure is neither that rates…

Do ESG Ratings Affect IPO Valuations? (4 min read)

By Sam van de Schootbrugge | Mar 03, 2021
Summary A new Journal of Corporate Finance…

Want To Join Our Community Of Leading Investors And Researchers In Our Slack Chat Room?