Boris Johnson Is Using The Henry VIII Playbook

Boris Johnson clearly sees himself as a modern day Winston Churchill. In his biography of the World War Two Prime Minister, Johnson was not averse to moulding the Churchill story to address accusations against himself. He wrote that Churchill ‘wasn’t what people thought of as a man of principle: he was a glory-chasing, goal-mouth-hanging opportunist’. Sound familiar? While Johnson may feel comfortable in the clothes of Churchill, the better fit may actually be those of Henry VIII.

The Tudor monarch had a colourful personal and political life, initiating a break from the EU of the day – the Roman Catholic Church – that would shape the course of English history. His Reformation wasn’t triggered by war with a Continental European power, rather by his desire not be bound by the papal jurisdiction that barred him from annulling his marriage to Catherine of Aragon.

 

English Nationalism

To gain public support for such a sweeping change – England had been Catholic for almost one thousand years, after all – Henry articulated a powerful, revolutionary new identity for the English nation. In the Act in Restraint of Appeals 1533, which made the king the final legal authority in place of the pope, there is contained the following phrase.

‘…It is manifestly declared and expressed that this realm of England is an empire…governed by one supreme head and king…’

Henry was relentless in forging this English nationalism, much like Johnson could be considered today. During the king’s reign, anyone that displayed any loyalty to Rome could be tried for treason. Notably, Thomas More (author of Utopia and chief minister of the king), refused to recognise Henry’s Supremacy and the break from Rome. His punishment was to be beheaded.

 

Government Vs. Parliament

In order to rapidly implement this transition away from the European Catholic community, the king passed various acts. This included the Act of Supremacy, which made him ‘supreme head in earth of the Church of England’. And crucially, the Proclamation by the Crown Act of 1539, which permitted the King to legislate by decree. That is, to bypass parliament.

Remarkably, this Henrician legislation echoes on to this day. Indeed, the current Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) contains numerous similarities. It allows the government to change primary legislation without having to run it through parliament again. Johnson will be acutely aware of this. After all, he suspended parliament through prorogation. The WAB has likely been crafted to give the prime minister greater powers to bypass Parliament. Johnson could therefore be following the in the footsteps of Henry, more so than Churchill. But he would wise to study what happened next in the English Reformation.

 

Conflict and Unsettled Matters

The king seized church lands (one-fifth to one-third of all the ecclesiastical holdings of England) and sold to them to the wealthy to help buttress support for his policies. Since the church was often the main provider of charity to the poor, many parts of the country – notably the North – rose up in rebellion. In turn, Henry ruthlessly suppressed them and took revenge upon their leaders.

Henry died a Catholic despite his shift away from that doctrine during his lifetime. After his death in 1547, however, his son Edward VI and his ardently Protestant advisors took a more stringent path towards reform and attempted to impose the new religion upon the country. This also engendered rebellions throughout the country and progress was cut short in 1553 with his untimely death. When Henry’s eldest surviving heir, the Catholic Mary I, became queen, she started to repeal much of the Reformation legislation and tried to achieve a reunion with Rome, something which she ultimately succeeded.

But it wasn’t plain sailing. Rome wanted a resolution to the confiscation of its property. Mary also had to produce a male heir to prevent her Protestant half-sister Elizabeth returning the country to Protestantism, something in which she was unsuccessful. She died childless in 1558, the progress of her Counter Reformation stalled. Famously, Elizabeth attempted to be less hard-line than Edward VI – vowing not to make windows into men’s souls – but she was unable to mend the schism that would ultimately grow so wide as to erupt into the English Civil War (1642-1651) in the following century.

 

Lesson for Today

But what can this brief foray into the English Reformation reveal to us? The ‘Brexit’ of 1534 was far from straightforward, nor did it stop conflict within the country. In fact in instigated it. As for the economic consequences, GDP per capita barely changed for one hundred years and fell sharply during the Civil War – though of course we must take economic analysis of that period history with a pinch of salt. It took colonial expansion, notably to India, and later in the industrial revolution in the 1700s for growth to really pick up in England (Figure 1).

Importantly, despite the charisma and leadership talents of King Henry VIII, he wasn’t able to stabilise the British political order during his lifetime or after. Therefore, any deal or election success achieved by Boris Johnson will not likely stop the political instability that has plagued the UK since the 2016 referendum.

 

Figure 1: King Henry VIII didn’t change the fortunes of England

 

Source: Macro Hive, The Maddison-Project, http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/maddison-project/home.htm, 2013 version.

 

Post-Script for the Rest of Europe

Finally, lest one think this was a uniquely UK drama, the picture looked worse for Continental Europe. While the English Reformation was underway, Europe was electrified by Martin Luther’s doctrinal attack against Catholicism. This, along with rampant corruption of the Catholic Church, saw Protestant uprisings against the incumbent authorities of the day. This culminated in one the most violent episodes in European history, the Thirty Year War. Almost quarter of the German population perished. Fast forward to today, and anti-EU sentiment is rife across Europe, whether the National Front in France, the AfD in Germany or Lega in Italy. Therefore, don’t expect political instability to be confined just to the UK.

 

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)