By
Bilal Hafeez
02-04-2020
Are We Underestimating Disinflation?
(2 min read)
Despite many headline-grabbing downward revisions to US growth, most economists are not expecting inflation to fall by much. The consensus for core PCE is for a decline from 1.8% YoY in Q1 to 1.7% in Q2 and Q3 and back to 1.8% from Q4 onwards. These have been revised down from earlier, but the trend is still up (Chart 1). Even the most bearish banks on growth have core inflation only going down to 1.4%, which is the range of the last few years.
TO READ THIS HIVE EXCLUSIVE
SUBSCRIBE TO MACRO HIVE PRIME
£39/month thereafter
For full access to Macro Hive's insights produced by some of the most experienced researchers in the market today
