A Real Black Swan: Official Recognition of UFOs (and Aliens)?

Summary

• US officials will soon release their findings on unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) or more colloquially UFOs.
• The existence of UFOs will likely be confirmed, but the existence of extra-terrestrial life (ETL) will likely be denied.
• Even so, the recognition of UFOs could be enough to further increase distrust in public institutions, which could be destabilising for markets.

Following at least 74 years of secretive research, the US government will finally confirm the presence of unidentified flying objects (UFOs) this month, June 2021. This is not pie-in-the-sky futurist thinking. Rather, the Director of National Intelligence, the Department of Defence, and the Department of Naval Intelligence are under orders to produce a joint Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force (UAPTF) report in the next 30 days. The dossier is to detail collective findings dating from Project Sign in 1947 to the present.

The ‘Recognition Event’ is the most consequential Black Swan ever, and it will materially impact capital markets in unknowable magnitude. I anticipate game-changing disclosures regarding the study of UFOs (UAP) are imminent. But my position remains that Washington and other world capitals will continue to deny the existence of extra-terrestrial life (ETL) for now. But significantly, once the process begins, there will be no putting the djinni back in the bottle. Information flows will crescendo from sources worldwide, including foreign governments and the scientific community.

America admitted to historically suppressing knowledge related to UFOs and ETs last year in 2020. Opaque revelations resulted from Freedom of Information Act filings, which declassified previously classified reports, cables, and photographs. These records proved taxpayers have unknowingly funded government research on UAP/ETLs since the end of World War II. Additionally, the Pentagon declassified UFO film footage taken by US Naval personnel from cockpits and flight decks between 2004 and 2019, stating both were genuine but unexplainable. It has even acknowledged new UFO images and videos to be authentic as recently as April 2021.

Credible sources supporting UAP/ETL existence number in their thousands worldwide and include diaries, letters, emails, and government reports. Testimonials range from luminaries to the rank and file in the intelligence services, political leadership, military command, commercial pilots, medical doctors, law enforcement, park rangers, game wardens, and fire, emergency, and rescue personnel.

It has long been alleged that America and other democracies have hidden physical evidence collected from fallen UFOs. This includes ‘exotic materials’ (physical substances not found on the ‘elemental table’ that cannot be produced on Earth), ‘off-world organic matter’ (the remains of alien life forms recovered from downed UFOs), and advanced technologies including ‘anomalous propulsion systems’ that appear to violate the known laws of physics. In the words of Dr J Allen Hynek, the only US government scientist to work on Project Sign (1947 to 1949), Project Grudge (1949 to 1951), and Project Blue Book (1952 to 1970), ‘We have so much evidence on UFOs, it is an embarrassment of riches.’

But up until June 2021, no government source has ever verified any official acknowledgements (other than those disclosed but later retracted such as the Roswell Incident, New Mexico 1947). Yet unequivocally, the government has performed counterintelligence to obscure the truth, block legitimate communications between free citizens, obstruct the open exchange of information, and broadly silence/discredit voices advocating for transparency and disclosure.

This will change in 30 days. When former President Donald Trump signed the $2.3tn coronavirus relief bill into law on 28 December 2020, a provision therein started a six-month countdown for the release of the UAPTF report, commissioned by Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) – then Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee. Failure to produce this joint intelligence report means the Senate can withhold federal funding until delivery. These findings are then to be shared (excluding possible redactions in the interests of national security) with the public.

While the populist Trump administration pressed the Pentagon and intelligence services for accountability and openness, the 3 November 2020 election result heightens the political risk for further UAP/ETL establishment obfuscation. Will the report speculate on ETLs? My best guess is no; it will focus on unmanned UAP narratives. My second-best guess is it will almost certainly emphasize ‘hostile intent’ and ‘military threat’ storylines, as a motive. After all, ‘scientific observation’ or perhaps even ‘magnanimous benevolence’ intentions would fail to justify greater tax dollars and reduced institutional oversight.

Either way, the official disclosure of UAP will likely degrade the public’s trust and perception of efficacy in existing governments. A collapse of confidence and more generally fear could add to the broad-based social unrest that much of the world experienced starting in 2019, the ‘Year of Protest’, from Hong Kong to Lebanon to Chile. Civil discord followed in 2020, the ‘Year of Plague’, where lawlessness, looting, arson, and a spike in violent crime juddered the streets of major American cities. One might expect the UAPTF report to contribute to my 2021 ‘Year of Pandemonium’ theme – which kicked off with the short-lived occupation of the US Capital building on 6 January.

Population control tactics have dampened worldwide demonstrations, but temporarily. As leaders reopen economies and societies this year, public discontent could dramatically re-emerge. After all, we are yet to fix the core problems from 2019: the wealth divide, inequity, environmental destruction, the population climacteric, the lack of opportunities for the young, the demolition of the DM middle class, the demand for direct representation and self-determination, populism, nationalism, the assault on personal freedoms, and Big Tech and its attack on knowledge did not diminish during the coronavirus. Just the opposite. These societal divisions were exacerbated by an appalling decline in the human condition and a generational rise in misery. Unemployment, destitution, crime, disease, and the failure of governments to deliver on domestic security (in some parts of the world) will contribute to a commensurate increase in mayhem.

So, regarding UAP/ETL, I anticipate authorities will attempt to psychologically groom a malleable public with a slow drip of information flows. There will be no tsunami of hard facts. Still, expect the impact of this paradigm shift to be immeasurable.

I believe government disclosure of UFOs will have profound implications for asset prices. It will surely impact FX, bond markets, commodities, real-estate (especially agricultural land), defense industry, the energy sectors, transportation, industrials, manufacturing, food production, healthcare, barterable valuables, physical assets and precious metals.

The Recognition Event may usher in a Fifth Industrial Revolution based on off-world technologies and physical substances. The multiverse, exotic matter, quantum superluminal communications, nano-bio machines or programmable life forms, alien materials, the entangled universe, trans-dimensional physics, electromagnetic gravity, dark energy, folding space, hypersonic velocity, scaler weaponry, UAP propulsion systems and Majestic 12. All this could soon enter both the modern scientific lexicon and the mainstream of STEM studies at research facilities throughout the developed world.

Such a Black Swan will usher in a philosophical reassessment of the humanities, civic upheaval, perhaps even the deconstruction of organised religion, and an unquantifiable dislocation for financial markets.