2020 Grey Swan: US Introduces Capital Controls
(2 min read)
Black swan events are the unknown unknowns that no one can even envisage, let alone predict. But their close cousin – grey swans – can enter our imaginations. These are low probability, high impact events that few expect. They aren’t even our base cases. But by imagining these risk scenarios, we can at least prepare for them should they erupt.
While everyone has been talking about trade wars, the next battle may be fought over capital flows. Under President Trump, the US has battled very publicly to advantage US goods in international trade, especially with China. We’ve now got new tariffs being introduced that have the effect of throwing sand into the gears of global trade. But why stop there?
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