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Fast Locations and Slowing Labor Mobility (Philadelphia Fed, 45 Pages) This study posits that home attachment is to blame for the declining rates of internal migration within the United States, suggesting that fewer people are willing to relocate for a job that would take them outside their preferred home destination. [Bearish productivity, bearish stocks]
The Circular Relationship Between Productivity Growth and Real Interest Rates (VOX CEPR, 5 min Read) The prevalence of low real interest rates allows for a weak productive companies and projects to continue to exist and remain moderately profitable. The fall in real interest rates since the ‘90s explains why we’ve seen decelerating productivity over that time range. [Bearish stocks]
Are We Under Measuring Productivity Gains from The Internet? Part II (Marginal Revolution, 2 min read) Productivity growth in the US is much lower than historical standards. New research argues that this is NOT due to mis-measuring tech innovation. [Bearish stocks, bullish bonds]
Does Recession Risk Rise as The Expansion Ages? (The Capital Spectator, 4 min read) Econometric evidence and the analysis of experts argues that economic expansion is not duration dependent. For example, the US is growing for 125 months, does not mean the likelihood of a downturn has increased. [Bullish equities]