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A Global Economy Without a Cushion (Project Syndicate, 4 min read) Former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, Stephen Roach, points out that global trade growth last year was the fourth weakest since 1980, and the three weakest were all associated with global recession. Global growth is already close to stall speed leaving significant risks from the much-reduced buffer from trade growth.
Tracking Long-run Growth in the Euro Area With an a-theoretical Tool (VoxEU, 6 min read) During the past 30 years institutional integration, competitiveness and monetary policy all supported long run growth. Equity cycles, debt ratios and sovereign stress all have a negative or mixed impact on growth.
Forecasting Unemployment Rates with International Factors (Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 22 page read) A global unemployment series is constructed to show linkages between unemployment rates in seven OECD countries. Migration and common business cycles are possible explanations.