This article is only available to Macro Hive subscribers. Sign-up to receive world-class macro analysis with a daily curated newsletter, podcast, original content from award-winning researchers, cross market strategy, equity insights, trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, academic paper summaries, explanation and analysis of market-moving events, community investor chat room, and more.
Gold Is Within Striking Distance of Its All-Time High. Here’s How to Play the Rally (Advisor Perspectives, 6 min read) Frank Holmes of US Global Investors expresses a bullish view on gold and likes streaming companies and metal royalty (including Franco-Nevada and Royal Gold). Judy Shelton’s appointment to the Fed is another factor in his constructive view on gold. [Bullish Gold]
From American to European Exceptionalism (Project Syndicate, 7 min read) Morgan Stanley’s former chairman for Asia, Stephen Roach, highlights the US’s projected 2.6% of GDP C/A deficit this year versus the EU’s 2.7% surplus. Given reduced domestic savings in the US and a very expansionary fiscal stance, this divergence in external balances is set to widen, causing further USD weakness. [Bearish USD]
2Q20 Earnings: Guide Me to Your Profits (JP Morgan Asset Management, 10 min read) Given the ‘potential for further US dollar weakness going forward, we are inclined to take on a bit more value exposure in portfolios [US equities]. A global reflation trade would support some of the sectors that have been hit the hardest over the past few months, and valuations are attractive; the industrial and financial sectors look particularly interesting’. [Bullish Value]
The New Silk Road Routes: Why Investors Should Care (Amundi, 12 min read) Countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) represent more than 70% of the global population, 55% of global GDP and 75% of energy reserves. Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and the Philippines could benefit, as could energy, transport, real estate and metals.