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How Coronavirus Could Impact the Global Supply Chain by Mid-March (Harvard Business Review, 4 min read) Peak supply disruption from COVID-19 is likely by mid’ March as the pre-Chinese New Year manufacturing shipments arrived in the US/Europe in late February.
COVID‑19: Repercussions Could Worsen Before They Improve (PIMCO Blog, 3 min read) As a combined demand and supply shock COVID-19 will cause a meaningful, but temporary, hit to economic growth. The Fed will likely cut rates by 50bps to counteract the tightening in financial conditions, the ECB may cut too.
A Pandemic of Deglobalization? (Project Syndicate, 4 min read) COVID-19 could reinforce the deglobalisation trend already underway, reminiscent of how the Black Death in Europe brought an end to the Middle Ages.