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Commodity Price Uncertainty as a Leading Indicator of Economic Activity (Essex Finance Centre, 23-page read) Uncertainty shocks in agricultural, energy and metals markets have a more long-lasting dampening effect on U.S. economic activity and its components when compared to the effect of oil price uncertainty shocks. Non-oil commodity shocks are also less likely to be used within central bank information set when making predictions on future economic activity.
Which jobs are most at risk because of COVID-19? (BROOKINGS, 6 min read) “COVID-19 induced labour market pain is disproportionately borne by young, poorly educated and poorly paid workers, and by regions that are already less well-off and characterised by a greater prevalence of temporary contracts. Through its employment effects, the lockdown is bound to increase inequality.”
Does the US Tax Code Favour Automation?(NBER, 43-page read) US taxes labour heavily and favours capital significantly. While labour is taxed at an effective rate between 25.5% and 33.5%, capital faces an effective tax rate of about 5% (down from 10% in the 2010s and 20% in the 1990s and early 2000s). Reducing labour taxes or combining lower capital taxes with automation taxes can increase US employment to an optimal level.