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Growth in the shadow of COVID-19 debt (VOXEU, 9 min read) A spike in the debt-to-GDP ratios leads to a sharp contraction in GDP growth (for both developing and developed economies). The massive fiscal expenditure seen during COVID could therefore come at a cost: lower growth in the medium run.
Brazil’s Pandemic is Just Beginning (The Atlantic, 7 min read) Brazil could become the next epicentre for COVID as fatalities quickly increase thanks to a weak public health system and crowded neighbourhoods. This could exacerbate current income inequality, poverty, and potentially cause an economic breakdown (since Brazil was recovering from a recession pre-COVID).
The value of social distancing is not equally distributed (VOXEU, 9 min read) Lockdown is less feasible in poorer countries. It is estimated that the advantages of social distancing and suppression policies are different across countries. Countries with younger demographics are less susceptible to the disease and less eager to trade-off economic wellbeing for risk reduction.