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Initial Claims Still Positive, Negative Near term Recession(The Bonddad Blog) Debunks current predictions about a looming recession by scrutinising labour market data . The average on claims remains low and the monthly YoY% change is at the same level as last year – no worries in sight.
Predicting Recessions: Financial Cycle Versus Term Spread (BIS) Measuring the financial cycle has a better predictive power for incoming recessions than the more common measure of term spreads.
The Myth of Income Stagnation, Again (Dr. Ed’s Blog) Further analysis on the state of the labour market – this piece maintains that productivity growth is increasing and consequently results in a rise in wages. Thereby, undermines theories of income stagnation.
The Best Economic News No One Wants to Talk About (The Atlantic) Looks at why neither politicians nor the media want to highlight the healthy labour market – wage growth for low-income earners has doubled poorest workers are now paid more.
The Surprising Decline of Entrepreneurship and Innovation in the West (The Conversation) Observes various indicators of entrepreneurship such as the ratio of new firms to total firms and concludes that they all point to a decline in overall innovation.