Ep. 379: Paul Cavey on East Asia’s AI Tech Boom, Semiconductor Exports, and Macro Dynamics

Paul Cavey is a China-focused Asia economist with twenty-five years of experience covering the region. He runs East Asia Econ. Previously, he was a macro strategist in the global bond team at Wellington Management, head of China economics at Macquarie Securities and chief China economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. In this podcast, we discuss:

1. AI Hardware Demand & Regional Supply Chains 
2. Taiwan’s Real GDP Expansion vs. Korea’s Terms-of-Trade Shock 
3. Taiwan’s Negative Real Interest Rates & Inflation Outlook 
4. East Asia’s Resilience to Global Energy Shocks 
5. Bank of Korea Policy Hikes & Won FX Dynamics 
6. Japan’s Fiscal Revenue Boom & Manufacturing Catch-Up 
7. BOJ Policy Path, Persistent Inflation, and Yen Weakness 
8. China’s Property Slump & Incremental Credit Easing 
9. China’s Auto Export Surge & Sovereign Tech Stack 
10. Sovereign Balance Sheet Divergence & CGB Market Dynamics 

You can follow Paul’s work here.

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