Ep. 360: Dirk Willer on Trading Global Macro Regimes, the End of QE, and Navigating Equity Bubbles

Dr. Dirk Willer is a Managing Director and Global Head of Macro and Asset Allocation at Citi Research in New York. Prior to this role, Dirk headed global Emerging Market Strategy, where he and his teams were consistently ranked in the top three in the institutional investor surveys. Previously, Dirk worked at Omega Advisors and RHG Capital as a global macro strategist and portfolio manager, and at Swiss Bank as a fixed income strategist for Russia and Eastern Europe. Dirk holds a PhD and MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics. Dirk is also the author of an influential book on how to trade emerging market fixed income, published by Wiley in 2020, and of a book on global macro trading, released in 2026. In this podcast, we discuss:

1. Unlearning the QE Reflex
2. Trading “Close to the Fire”
3. The Nearest Neighbour Regime Framework
4. PMIs vs. “Noisy” Indicators
5. Yield Curve Inversions and Fed Lags
6. The “GMO” Bubble Methodology
7. Credit as the Equity Canary
8. The Four-Indicator Dollar Model
9. Fading Geopolitical Shocks
10. The Role of Human Judgment in AI 

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