Ep. 306: Ken Rogoff on Dollar Decline, Debt Worries and Fed Independence

Kenneth Rogoff is Maurits C. Boas Professor at Harvard University, and former chief economist at the IMF. He has long ranked among the top dozen most cited economists and is an international grandmaster of chess. His influential 2009 book with Carmen Reinhart, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, shows the remarkable quantitative similarities across time and countries in the roots and aftermath of debt and financial crises. Rogoff is also known for his pioneering work on central bank independence, and on exchange rates. He is co-author of the widely used graduate text, Foundations of International Macroeconomics. Ken’s latest book is Our Dollar, Your Problem: An Insider’s View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance and the Road Ahead. In this podcast we discuss: 

• Rogoff’s early life and background as a chess prodigy 
• Yale, MIT and mentors like Rudy Dornbusch and Stan Fischer 
• Rogoff’s groundbreaking paper on central bank independence 
• Origins and meaning behind the title of his new book: Our Dollar, Your Problem 
• Dollar’s historical rise to dominance and Bretton Woods breakdown 
• Role of US military and financial power in currency supremacy 
• Why challenges to the dollar (euro, renminbi, yen) have fallen short 
• Structural weaknesses in the UK economy and real estate obsession 
• US military-industrial complex and its role in tech dominance 
• Impact of immigration and higher education on American competitiveness 
• Decline of US soft power and investor trust under Trump 
• Fragility of Federal Reserve independence 
• Debt sustainability and why US fiscal deficits matter 
• Japan as a cautionary tale for financial repression and slow growth 
• Market complacency around long-term inflation risks 
• Books mentioned: Benjamin Franklin: An American Life (Isaacson), Manias, Panics, and Crashes (Kindleberger), Wealth And Poverty Of Nations (Landes), Muppets in Moscow: The Unexpected Crazy True Story of Making Sesame Street in Russia (Natasha Rogoff) 

You can find Ken’s new book here and his academic site is here. 

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs. You are not permitted to publish, transmit, or otherwise reproduce this information, in whole or in part, in any format to any third party without the express written consent of Macro Hive. This includes providing or reproducing this information, in whole or in part, as a prompt.)