Ep. 223: Shahin Vallée on French Election Fallout, Second Round Scenarios, and Germany’s Debt Brake

My colleague Henry Occelston hosted this podcast on my behalf. Shahin Vallée is a senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations (a German think tank) and also a Board Member overseeing Europe coverage at the Observatory group, a geopolitical macro-advisory firm. He was previously an economic advisor to the President of the European Council, Herman von Rompuy, and also an economic advisor to Emmanuel Macron while Macron was Economy Minister of France. This podcast covers:

• Why Macron called a snap election.
• How to interpret the first round of the election.
• Why a far-right majority is still possible.
• Why Melénchon and the far-left may not affect policy too much.
• What a new government might look like and the difficulties the new EU budget rules will bring.
• Limitations to Presidential powers on foreign policy
• The difficulties of Germany’s 2025 budget negotiations and whether the debt brake is sustainable.
• Why fiscal prudence is so embedded in the German psyche.
• Why it may take some time before German debt brake.
• Books mentioned: The Last Colony: A Tale of Exile, Justice and Britain’s Colonial Legacy (Sands).

Website mentioned on AI: Situational Awareness

You can follow Shahin on X

Make sure to subscribe to the show on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you go for your podcasts. You can follow us on Twitter and LinkedIn.

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)