Ep. 223: Shahin Vallée on French Election Fallout, Second Round Scenarios, and Germany's Debt Brake

My colleague Henry Occelston hosted this podcast on my behalf. Shahin Vallée is a senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations (a German think tank) and also a Board Member overseeing Europe coverage at the Observatory group, a geopolitical macro-advisory firm. He was previously an economic advisor to the President of the European Council, Herman von Rompuy, and also an economic advisor to Emmanuel Macron while Macron was Economy Minister of France. This podcast covers:

Why Macron called a snap election.
How to interpret the first round of the election.
Why a far-right majority is still possible.
Why Melénchon and the far-left may not affect policy too much.
What a new government might look like and the difficulties the new EU budget rules will bring.
Limitations to Presidential powers on foreign policy
The difficulties of Germany’s 2025 budget negotiations and whether the debt brake is sustainable.
Why fiscal prudence is so embedded in the German psyche.
Why it may take some time before German debt brake.
Books mentioned: The Last Colony: A Tale of Exile, Justice and Britain’s Colonial Legacy (Sands).

Website mentioned on AI: Situational Awareness

You can follow Shahin on X

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