President Trump’s approval rating has continued to slide. At 42 % this is the lowest since late last year and, according to FiveThirtyEight, below the level where President’s have previously been re-elected. His handling of George Floyd’s death has been the driving factor in the current leg lower with less than one-third saying the approved in a recent CBS/YouGov poll. Perceptions over his handling of the COVID crisis have also deteriorated after an initial bump in support. The ongoing stock market rally and drop back in unemployment has done nothing to help.
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President Trump’s approval rating has continued to slide. At 42 % this is the lowest since late last year and, according to FiveThirtyEight, below the level where President’s have previously been re-elected. His handling of George Floyd’s death has been the driving factor in the current leg lower with less than one-third saying the approved in a recent CBS/YouGov poll. Perceptions over his handling of the COVID crisis have also deteriorated after an initial bump in support. The ongoing stock market rally and drop back in unemployment has done nothing to help.
With Trump’s approval rating under pressure, a Democrat win in November now looks increasingly likely according to prediction markets. The gap between Republicans and Democrats has widened massively in a matter of weeks. Back in April the election looked to be a close call but since late May the gap started to widen out and with the latest spike coinciding with the protests and social unrest. Biden has resisted calls to ‘defund the police’ but has been active in his support for the protestors and black voters.
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
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