US Election Tracker – Swing States Point To Biden Victory
- By Caroline Grady and Bilal Hafeez
- 3 min read
President Trump’s approval rating has now stabilized after the recent slump. His handling of the COVID crisis and the social unrest in the wake of George Floyd’s tragic death knocked around 4 points from his approval rating leaving it below the range of the last two years. New COVID outbreaks in several US states could leave his rating under continued downward pressure…
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As election day draws closer, we expand our election tracker to include polls from the key swing states. These broadly back up findings from national polls showing Biden set to beat Trump. Polls showing only small margins in favour of Biden need to be treated with caution, however, given that these states (excl. Michigan) are more Republican than the national average. But, that said, Biden’s lead in national polls is increasingly large, with Trump’s handling of both the virus and the social unrest going down badly with voters. A NYT poll released on Wednesday shows Biden 14 points ahead (50%/36%).
The latest COVID surge could also change the political outlook. A record number of new cases, including in swing states such as Texas and Florida, and high numbers in North Carolina, will mean Trump’s perceived handling of the pandemic remains a priority issue for voters. Delayed re-openings and/or second (localized) lockdowns cannot be ruled out. We also provide an update on the VP nomination debate, which could also swing Biden’s support.
Swing states: Michigan and Wisconsin show sizeable lead
Michigan: Average margin of 7.6 points in favour of Biden reflects the 2-15 point range in the polls covered by FiveThirtyEight (Table 1). They highlight a local pollster reporting a 12-point lead (53%/41%) for Biden compared with a maximum of 47% for Hilary in 2016. A CNBC/Change poll shows 47%/45% in favour of Biden (Trump won Michigan by less than 1 point in 2016).
Wisconsin: Another large average lead, but again the detail is mixed. CNBC/Change show a 4-point lead for Biden (Trump won Wisconsin by less than 1 point in 2016).
Arizona: Biden ahead by an average of 3 points on average. But a CNBC/Change Research poll put this closer (45%/44%) for Biden/Trump (Trump won Arizona by 3.5 points in 2016).
Florida: A narrower lead of 1-5 points for Biden in our first poll but a bigger 50/43% in CNBC/Change.
North Carolina: Support looks to be more even on our first poll with the detail ranging from Trump in the lead by 3 points to Biden leading by 4 points. CNBC/Change poll is also pretty close (47%/45%).
Pennsylvania: Results are mixed so far, and polling quality is weaker than in other swing states; but both tables show Biden narrowly ahead.
Georgia and Texas: Trump is in the lead in these two states, but the margins are currently small versus his win in 2016 (Trump won Georgia by 5 points in 2016 and Texas by 9 points). Whether or not these last two states should be included as swing states is debatable. A Democrat win in Texas (even if small) would likely reflect a huge nationwide swing given strong Republic support.
Table 1: Poll of polls puts Biden ahead in most, but not all, swing states
Source: FiveThirtyEight (polls taken from May 1- June 11)
Chart 1: Biden leads by an average of 48/45% in six swing states on CNBC/Change poll
Source: CNBC (poll taken on June 12-14)
It is worth noting that the CNBC/Change poll saw Biden’s lead increase over the earlier two weeks and was the first time the poll showed Biden ahead in six states.
Trump’s approval rating remains under pressure
In line with the polls discussed above, Trump’s approval ratings remain under pressure. At 42.5% it has recovered slightly from the low in the wake of the protests following George Floyd’s tragic death, but the trend since early April is very clearly downward and the latest COVID spike will most likely see it drop further. Prediction markets are broadly unchanged after the recent spike showing a Democrat win now significantly more likely.
VP Update
Biden is set to unveil his VP pick by 1 August. All we know for definite so far is that it will be a woman. Should Biden decide that he wants to put a woman of colour on the ticket, the choice is between Kamala Harris, Val Demings, Stacey Abrams, Keisha Bottoms and Susan Rice.
A wider choice includes Elizabeth Warren but no longer Amy Klobuchar because she recently stated publicly that Biden should pick a woman of colour. Harris is way out in the lead according to prediction markets, with Demings and Rice in second and third place respectively. This NYT podcast provides some useful background.
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)