President Trump’s heavy-handed approach to the unrest that has erupted across the US in the past week is now a key election topic. His stance contrasts sharply with the conciliatory approach of Joe Biden and is bringing the country’s divisions to the forefront once again. Trump’s popularity had been falling since the April high and, surprisingly, has not moved much in the past week albeit remaining towards the lower bound of the recent range (Chart 1).
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President Trump’s heavy-handed approach to the unrest that has erupted across the US in the past week is now a key election topic. His stance contrasts sharply with the conciliatory approach of Joe Biden and is bringing the country’s divisions to the forefront once again. Trump’s popularity had been falling since the April high and, surprisingly, has not moved much in the past week albeit remaining towards the lower bound of the recent range (Chart 1).
Trump’s popularity could, however, drop further in the coming weeks with a June 2nd Reuters / Ipsos poll showing only 33% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the situation (and with the high level of support from Republications offsetting much lower support from Democrats and independents). Support for the protests is much higher at 75% and as expected, Democrats are more supportive than Republicans.
The likelihood of Republicans winning the November election has, however, fallen sharply according to prediction markets (Chart 2). This could still change depending on the Democratic VP nominee but for now it appears that social unrest is working in Biden’s favour. Another factor is the Senate. The likelihood of a Democrat House and Senate after November has increased in the past week according to prediction markets.
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)