Global COVID-19 Tracker – Why Is Greece Not Off The List?
- By Bilal Hafeez and Sam van de Schootbrugge
- 4 min read
- Last week, the world registered 1.7mn new COVID-19 cases, a weekly rise of 8%. Overall, 23.4mn cases have now been recorded, with deaths totalling 807,830. It took 17 days to go from 700,000 to 800,000 deaths – the same time it took to go from 600,000 to 700,000. New daily deaths have not increased at the same rate as new daily cases (Chart 1). Nevertheless, globally over the past two weeks, one person has died every 15 seconds from the virus
- On average, 25 new cases per 100,000 population were recorded across our sample over the last 7 days. Colombia reported the largest weekly rise in cases per 100,000 population (143), followed by Brazil (125) and Israel (115). New daily infections are rising fastest in Malta (22%), Greece (22%) and the Philippines (17.2%). The largest weekly changes in 3d moving averages (Table 1) were in France (170%), Italy (92%) and South Korea (55%).
- US coronavirus infections now stand at 5.7mn, with 5% of those recorded over the last seven days (300,000). The weekly change in 3d moving average (cases) is down 17%, and the same statistic for deaths is down 13%. Deaths have not risen to the same extent as in the first wave (Chart 2).
- Many European countries are seeing infection rates rise (Chart 3) and are now in the midst of a second wave (see scatter below). Last week in the news:
- The Greek government continued to roll out restrictions to fight the infection spike. The country experienced the largest weekly percentage rise in our sample – 1,600 new cases, increasing the total number of cases in the country by 22%.
- Malta also recorded a 22% rise in the total number of cases, increasing the figure to 1,600 or 365 per 100,000 population. The government closed nightclubs, limited gatherings to 15 people and mandated mask-wearing in public places indoors.
- The UK announced that Croatia, Austria, and Trinidad and Tobago will be removed from the quarantine-exemption list, while Portugal will be re-added. The country recorded 7,300 new cases over the last seven days, and the weekly change in 3d ma is down 27%.
- On Saturday, Italy reported 1,071 cases, the most since mid-May. The country’s weekly change in 3d ma is second on our list (92%). In total, 5,400 new cases were recorded last week, increasing the total to 260,000.
- Spain is also suffering from a second wave of infections. Nationwide, 77 new cases per 100,000 population were recorded last week. The country’s 10-day moving average has been increasing steadily over the last month (Chart 4).
- France warned that the virus is circulating in major cities among the young. The country registered 27,500 new cases last week, increasing the total number of cases by 10.7%. The 10d ma is also rising (Chart 5).
- Germany recorded 9,500 new cases last week, a 23% rise on the week before. Despite this increase, the country is holding three public concerts to study the risks posed by mass indoor events.
- Across the rest of the world:
- South Korea ordered masks to be worn both indoors and outdoors. The country is recording new daily cases in the 94th percentile and the weekly 3d ma is up 55%.
- Australia has passed 500 coronavirus deaths, but the weekly change in 3d ma is falling (-2%).
- New Zealand registered 52 new cases last week and extended lockdown measures in Auckland.
- India is reporting around 70,000 new cases a day. The country recorded a staggering 400,000 new cases last week, increasing the total to 3mn (15% rise).
- Brazil recorded the greatest number of deaths over the last seven days (6,900), followed by US (6,750) and India (5,800).
For more information, we provide a comprehensive list of charts, diagrams and tables below.
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
Sam van de Schootbrugge is a macro research economist taking a one year industrial break from his Ph.D. in Economics. He has 2 years of experience working in government and has an MPhil degree in Economic Research from the University of Cambridge. His research expertise are in international finance, macroeconomics and fiscal policy.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)