Global COVID-19 Tracker – A Second Wave Hits Europe As Russia Celebrates A New Vaccine
- By Bilal Hafeez and Sam van de Schootbrugge
- 2 min read
- On Tuesday, the number of recorded global coronavirus cases reached 20mn. This figure is increasing by 1% a day and half of all registered cases can be found in the US (5mn), Brazil (3mn) and India (2mn). Total deaths have now reached 741,750, up by 6,920, or 0.9%, since our last report. The majority of deaths were in India (1,900), the US (1,600) and Mexico (1,600).
- Second wave concerns in Europe will persist given data in recent days. The 3d moving averages of all EU countries in our sample have increased, except Belgium, Hungary, Luxembourg, Latvia and Malta. Notably, cases in France have jumped, with the country registering an average of 1,400 cases a day over the last seven days and 2,000 cases a day over the last two days.
- Greece and Italy have also seen large spikes in recent days. The weekly change in 3d moving average for these countries is above 90%, the highest in Europe. Interestingly, the recent rise in cases has not deterred people’s mobility. In our Tuesday report, Greece experienced the largest weekly rise in mobility.
- Elsewhere in Europe, the UK recorded its highest number of cases in nearly two months. Infections surge in both Germany and Spain – Spain recorded the largest daily rise in 3d moving average on our list. Belgium and the Netherlands disagree on how to tackle virus surges in their countries. Finally, with regards to travel restrictions, Norway said it will quarantine travellers from more countries.
- Beyond Europe, new infections in Brazil, Hong Kong, Singapore and Australia seem to be falling. The weekly changes in 3d moving averages are all down by at least 30%. Australia is, however, continuing to experience a rise in deaths.
- The number of new daily cases in Argentina and Colombia remains high (see Table below). Across the Americas, more than 100,000 cases are being recorded every day. Daily cases in the US have dipped below 50,000-a-day since Sunday, but its weekly change in 3d moving average is yet to fall.
- Elsewhere around the world, New Zealand registered its first case in 102 days. Russia announced that it will start mass use of its new COVID-19 vaccine. Finally, the Philippines experienced an uptick in the number of daily recorded deaths.
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
Sam van de Schootbrugge is a macro research economist taking a one year industrial break from his Ph.D. in Economics. He has 2 years of experience working in government and has an MPhil degree in Economic Research from the University of Cambridge. His research expertise are in international finance, macroeconomics and fiscal policy.
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