Global COVID-19 Tracker
- By Bilal Hafeez and Stefan Posea
In the DM world, Sweden experienced a 4% increase in cases, while UK and Canada are just behind at 3%. Other increases can be found in US, France, and Denmark, with 2% each. For deaths, the rates are slightly bigger, with Australia leading at 6%. It is followed by Canada and Ireland at 5%, with US, Austria, and Sweden coming next at 4%.
In the EM world, we find Nigeria as being a new outlier with a 15% increase in cases. Russia and Saudi Arabia register 7% in what seems to be a continuation of yesterday’s developments. Overall, Latin America seems to have constant increase in cases in all of its major economies, with Brazil topping the list at 9%, followed by Mexico at 8%. Most other countries are below India’s 6%. Singapore, which lately experienced huge drops in overall mobility, has 4%. The deaths side finds Brazil and Nigeria leading with 10% increases, closely followed by Russia, Saudi Arabia and Mexico at 9%. India, Pakistan and Egypt come next at 7%.
As for the peak wave charts, those changes mean:
- In DM, we continue to observe the tendency of countries to move from peak wave to declining wave. While France is the only country in the new wave quadrant, today we see no DM economy that has a peak wave contender status. In the post peak wave, the only country right now is Australia. A high concentration of countries is found in the declining wave quadrant, with US, New Zealand, Greece, Finland, Denmark, Belgium, Italy, Spain, UK, Netherlands, Germany, and Japan being clear contenders in this sense.
- In EM, we see all major Latin American economies featured in the peak wave quadrant. Brazil stands at the top here, replacing UAE which is now visibly heading towards the post-peak quadrant. Other peak wave contenders could now be India, Russia, South Africa, Nigeria, and Egypt. The following days should have a close monitoring on Philippines and Saudi Arabia, as they are currently qualifying as potential new wavers. The post peak section features Thailand, followed at a long distance by Poland.
Chart 1: DM COVID Stages
Chart 2: EM COVID Stages
Table 1: Developed Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats
Table 2: Emerging and Newly Industrialised Countries: Key COVID-19 Stats
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
Stefan Posea is a Research Analyst at Macro Hive. His research interests lie in macro-financial interactions and monetary policy analysis. Stefan graduated with an MSc in Economics at Birkbeck, University of London and previously held roles in M&A and the Public Sector.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)