In this prime tracker, we review the latest vaccine developments globally. On the details:
Global Outlook (Charts 1 & 2, Tables 1):
This week, an average of 18.7mn vaccinations were administered globally every day, up 10% WoW (Chart 1). European countries had a particularly strong week – they vaccinated a larger share of their populations than North American countries for the first time (Chart 2). In all, 7.8% of the world’s population have now received at least one vaccination dose, up from 7.2% last week, and an estimated 5.8% have vaccine-induced immunity to Covid-19.
Share of Population Vaccinated (Table 1)
This week, the UK became only the second major economy to reach the 50% mark. It has vaccinated 51% of its population with at least one dose, of which 22.8% have received both doses. The threshold is a pivotal point – vaccination rates fell significantly in Israel once it reached the same mark back in February (Chart 5).
Most of the changes this week have come in countries towards the middle of the list. Hungary, Germany, Canada and Sweden vaccinated more than 4% of their respective populations over the last seven days. Also, European countries have, on average, now vaccinated around a quarter of people – a figure that has more than doubled in one month. Towards the bottom of the list, South Korea has vaccinated a further 2.1% of its population, the highest weekly increase for the country.
Doses (Chart 3 & 4, Table 1):
Average daily vaccinations rose 29% WoW among Asian countries. India, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines experienced weekly declines, while Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Malaysia registered WoW increases (Table 1).
Daily vaccinations across EMEA countries also increased 21% WoW. Hungary, Turkey, the Czech Republic and Poland all performed well. On a population-adjusted basis EMEA countries are, however, still behind Asia and Latin America (Chart 4).
Vaccination rates in the US have fallen for a third consecutive week. The country is administering on average 2.3mn doses a day, down 17% WoW. Adjusting for population size, the US is now vaccinating at the same rate as the UK (Chart 3).
Meanwhile, European countries are administering a larger number of daily vaccinations than the US for the first time. On average, 2.6mn doses are administered every day, up 8% WoW. Relative to the size of its population, the EU is now not far behind the US and UK (Chart 3).
Lastly, average daily doses across Latin American countries declined 6% WoW, driven by decreases in Chile, Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. In fact, Colombia is the only LATAM country to improve WoW. It has, however, vaccinated the smallest share of its population.
Immunity (Table 1):
Immunity is gained either via the vaccine (blue) or via infection over the last 6 months (orange). Israel and the UK are the only countries in which over 50% of the total population have Covid-19 immunity. The majority of protection in these countries has been gained via successful vaccination programmes. Meanwhile, in the Czech Republic and Sweden, a significant amount of immunity has been obtained via infection.
Projecting the current two-week vaccination rates forward, the US, Hungary, Canada and now Sweden are set to reach herd immunity (80%) by July 2021. The EU could reach the same target by September 2021. Meanwhile, Israel appears increasingly unlikely to reach 80%, which could be an early sign that other countries will face similar challenges further down the line.
Sam van de Schootbrugge is a macro research economist taking a one year industrial break from his Ph.D. in Economics. He has 2 years of experience working in government and has an MPhil degree in Economic Research from the University of Cambridge. His research expertise are in international finance, macroeconomics and fiscal policy.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)
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