By Sam van de Schootbrugge 31-03-2021
In: hive-exclusives | COVID-19

Weekly Vaccination Update

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In this prime tracker, we will keep you up-to-date with the latest developments globally. This week, we’ve added some charts on Israel, where mobility is increasing and the average age of those in hospital is declining. On the details:

Global Outlook (Charts 1 & 2):

  • This week, an average of 13.4mn vaccinations were administered globally every day, up 6% WoW (Table 1 columns 6 & 7, Chart 1). North America and Europe’s populations experienced the largest percentage point increases WoW (Chart 2). In all, 4.2% of the world’s population have now received at least one vaccination dose, up from 3.6% last week, and an estimated 2.5% have vaccine-induced Covid-19 immunity (Table 1 columns 2, 3 & 8).

Share of Population Vaccinated (Table 1 columns 2-5, Charts 3 & 4):

  • Just over 60% of Israel’s population have received at least one vaccination dose, and 90% of those have also received a second. Cases, hospitalisations and mobility numbers have consistently improved with the rollout (Chart 3). However, only an additional 0.5% of the population have received a vaccination over the last week, the second consecutive week where vaccination rates have fallen sharply. This could be early evidence that reaching the 80% target will take longer than initially thought. Israeli data does, however, stress that 80% is a key threshold – with the average age of those critically ill only falling once around 80% of over 70s had been inoculated (Chart 4).
  • Canada is a standout performer this week. It has vaccinated 12.7% of its population with at least one dose, up from 9.5% last week. The country had been falling behind in February, but vaccination rates are accelerating. The US, on the other hand, remains a consistently good performer – 28.7% of the population have received at least one dose, up 3.6ppt WoW. Overall, 18.1% of North America’s population have received at least one dose, significantly higher than other continents (Chart 2).

Doses (Table 1 columns 6-7):

  • Daily vaccination rates across DM economies have increased on last week – an estimated 480 people per 100k population received a vaccine every day, up 10% WoW. European countries fared particularly well after last week’s dip, with average daily doses up 24% WoW to 1.5mn. Spain’s performance was perhaps most noteworthy, as it doubled the daily number of inoculation over the last seven days.
  • Asian countries, on average, also had a strong week. China is now reporting data on a daily basis, and the number of inoculations is up 97% WoW to 4.4mn doses a day. South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand also saw daily rates rise. Meanwhile, Hong Kong, India and Singapore experienced WoW declines.
  • The average number of daily vaccinations across EMEA countries fell by a quarter WoW. Vaccination rates across Russia, Israel, the Czech Republic and Turkey fell. Poland, Hungary and South Africa, on the other hand, had relatively good weeks. LATAM performance was more mixed, with rises in daily vaccination rates in Colombia and Mexico offsetting declines in Chile, Brazil and Argentina.

Immunity (Table 1 columns 8-11):

  • Immunity is gained either via the vaccine or via contracting the virus. According to new ONS data, around 50% of the UK’s population have Covid-19 antibodies. Our estimates show over 40%, but if antibodies are present within 3 weeks of receiving a dose, this percentage would be closer to 50%. Regardless, the UK stands firmly above other major economies in terms of immunity.
  • Projecting current vaccination rates forward, the UK and Chile are set to reach 80% immunity by June, followed by the US and Singapore in July. After a good week for several European countries, the EU is forecast to reach the same mark by January 2022, up from August 2022 last week. Spain and France could reach the target by the end of 2021.




Sam van de Schootbrugge is a macro research economist taking a one year industrial break from his Ph.D. in Economics. He has 2 years of experience working in government and has an MPhil degree in Economic Research from the University of Cambridge. His research expertise are in international finance, macroeconomics and fiscal policy.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)

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