Two Ways Impeachment Could Hurt Equity and Risk Markets
(2 min read)
It’s official. Speaker Nancy Pelosi has formally announced an investigation of President Trump. This is in response to conversations the US president held with the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, in which Trump allegedly pushed for the investigation of the son of Democrat Presidential nominee Joe Biden. A simple majority in the Democrat-held House of Representatives would be needed to impeach Trump. It would then go to the Senate for a trial, where a two-thirds vote would be needed to convict. Given that the Senate is Republican-held, however, it would be unlikely that Trump would be convicted – Bill Clinton was similarly impeached without conviction in the 1990s.
Given this low probability of conviction, the question is whether or not the impeachment process will impact markets. We think there are two ways it could:
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