There Is No Recession
(2 min read)
The IMF says it’s the worst recession since the Great Depression. No, the worst in 300 years, says the Bank of England. And now this week, the NBER officially called the US recession as starting in February – an unusual move because they tend to define recessions periods after the event not at the beginning. Yet while the collapse in economic activity is clear, does it really feel like a recession?
US stocks would suggest otherwise – they are almost unchanged on the year. But that could just reflect central bank support, rather than the real economy. What does the average person on the street think? Well, according to US confidence surveys, most haven’t changed their expectations around jobs losses for the coming year despite the apparent depression...
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