Russia Sanction Tracker

Russian President Vladimir Putin remains insistent that his invasion will continue until it secures the demilitarisation of Ukraine. Officials from both countries are meeting for a third time today to negotiate a resolution to the war, which is now in its second week. But the chances of an immediate peace are slim.  

The West, meanwhile, is ramping up its sanctions on the Russian economy to pressure Putin into relenting. But will they be enough? In these weekly reports, we update you on who and what are currently sanctioned, and on those countries still refusing to butt heads with Russia.  

Countries Within the EU-US Alliance

Countries within the EU-US alliance have looked to hinder the Central Bank of Russia, oligarchs, and PEPs from using international resources (Table 1). They have also moved to block goods that could be used for military purposes from entering Russia, while reducing its ability to export. They have also added SWIFT sanctions to several banks. Here are the details:

• 24 February saw the White House impose the first sanctions on Russia. The European Commission followed closely, on 26 February. They released a joint statement on further restrictive economic measures. Since, both the Council of the European Union and The White House have added stricter sanctions on Russian oligarchs and PEPs.
• Commodity sanctions have been far fewer. Canada announced an ‘intention to ban all imports of crude oil from Russia’. It comes with limited impact, having not imported crude oil from Russia since 2019. Meanwhile, the US is considering similar action, even if it means acting without European partners. A US ban on Russian oil imports would be insignificant in terms of flow (3% of Russian oil exports arrive in the US) but could signify a willingness from larger countries to sanction Russian commodities.
• In Asia-Pacific, New Zealand has added to sanctions: freezing Russian assets, preventing the movement of money and assets into the country, and stopping superyachts, ships and aircraft from entering waters or airspace. It also imposed a travel ban on 100 individuals. Meanwhile, Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore have banned exports of strategic items and will join Western countries to block some Russian banks from SWIFT. South Korea added the Russian Central Bank to sanctions Monday.
• On SWIFT, the EU agreed to exclude seven Russian banks – VTB, Bank Otkritie, Noikombank, Promsvyazbank, Bank Rossiya, Sovcombank, and VEB. But it stopped short of banks handling energy payments. Elsewhere, we explain what SWIFT is and whether ejecting Russia matters.

Outside the EU-US Alliance

Countries outside the EU-US alliance have been less willing to impose sanctions on Russia. Some prefer economic neutrality at this point. Here are the details:

• Five countries have declared reluctance to impose sanctions on Russia currently: Brazil, China, Egypt, Mexico, and Turkey. Meanwhile, Pakistan signed a natural gas trade deal with Russia.
• Malaysia and Chile look like they may join sanctions. Malaysia denied the entry of a Russian-flagged tanker, sanctioned by the US. Meanwhile, Chile said it would support sanctions approved by the United Nations Security Council. However, the UAE currently occupy the Security Council presidency and have yet to commit to sanctions.
• Four major countries have not addressed whether they will add sanctions: India, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel.
• On economic impact, countries yet to impose sanctions on Russia account for 28.6% of global GDP. Meanwhile, countries that have declared they do not wish to impose sanctions on Russia, for now, account for 20.42% of global GDP.

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)