While new cases have been surging since late summer, mobility has not declined and the recovery has continued (Chart 1). This suggests businesses have found ways to recover while coping with the risks and regulatory constraints associated with the pandemic.
Medical Risks Have Declined
Mortality has fallen from spring levels. This is due to a combination of better health care, virus changes, growing immunity, and better measurement. And it is the case whether measured by the case fatality rate (CFR) or by excess deaths relative to historical averages. Excess deaths tend to be a more reliable indicator since they are not biased by tests sample selection or methodologies or death attributions.
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