The growth in COVID-19 cases in the US is likely to accelerate further, but new blanket lockdowns from states appear unlikely: the virus has become less lethal, there is ample healthcare spare capacity, and the long-term epidemiological benefits of lockdowns are unclear while their economic costs are prohibitive. New COVID-19 cases in the US have been rising since about mid-June (Chart 1). And, while America is continuing to ramp up its testing, this is not the sole reason for the growth in case numbers. Since mid-June, the share of positive tests has been increasing...