In this report, we standardise price changes across different markets to allow for cross-market comparisons.
What goes up, must come down – that was certainly the case with interest rates. German 2y and other European yields fell by five standard deviations last week. Previously they had all risen by as much. Central banks, notably the Bank of England, have done their utmost to give rates traders a headache.
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In this report, we standardise price changes across different markets to allow for cross-market comparisons.
What goes up, must come down – that was certainly the case with interest rates. German 2y and other European yields fell by five standard deviations last week. Previously they had all risen by as much. Central banks, notably the Bank of England, have done their utmost to give rates traders a headache. Hidden within the sea of large yield declines were also two standard deviation weekly declines in iron prices and GBP/USD.
On the other side, graphics chip maker NVIDIA jumped by 15% or three standard deviations, while Facebook, Amazon, and Tesla saw 1+ standard deviation moves. US small cap index, Russell 2000, jumped by two standard deviations too. Other big risers were natural gas prices (+1.5 st. dev.), Indian rupee (+1.4 st. dev), and gold (+1.1 st. dev.)
All of these moves suggest we need to continue to keep an eye on rates markets, but also tech stocks.
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.