Summary
- The advent of a bear market always prompts questions about how bad it can get.
- Happily, few bear markets get much worse than a 20% selloff. But those preceded by bubble-fuelled markets tend to be super bear markets with declines of 40% and more.
- The pandemic rally was clearly a bubble. It took a bear market for the S&P 500 to return to something like fair value.
- Whether the bear will be satisfied with a big growl or is just waking up will depend on a host of geopolitical factors well out of most companies’ control.
This article is only available to Macro Hive subscribers. Sign-up to receive world-class macro analysis with a daily curated newsletter, podcast, original content from award-winning researchers, cross market strategy, equity insights, trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, academic paper summaries, explanation and analysis of market-moving events, community investor chat room, and more.
