Claim your one month free trial for access to our premium content.



By Bilal Hafeez 18-03-2020
In: hive-exclusives | Economics Growth & Labour Market US

How Bearish Are Investors On US Growth?

(1 min read)
Resize text:


• Recent yield curve steepening has actually reduced the odds of a recession to 12% (Chart 1). This Fed model could well reflect a longer-term view that we will see a sharp recovery later this year. Remember, the curve inverted last year many quarters before today’s recession.

• This idea of a V-shaped recovery is confirmed by the consensus of economists. They assign a 40% chance of a recession and their base case is for zero growth in Q2 before we see recovery in H2 (Chart 2).
ALREADY A MEMBER? LOGIN

MACRO HIVE PRIME

PLEASE SELECT MEMBERSHIP TYPE BELOW*

MONTHLY MEMBERSHIP

Cancel Your Trial Anytime

Free

One Month Trial

Then £39 per Month

TRIAL NOW

ANNUAL MEMBERSHIP

Save 20% Compared to Monthly

£7.20

per week

£374.40 per Year

SUBSCRIBE NOW

MACRO HIVE PROFESSIONAL

Pricing
on request

Trade Ideas, Models & More

ENQUIRE NOW

To read this Exclusive, please become a member

  • Gain access to Hive Exclusives - the highest quality opinion-pieces & analysis by over 35 experienced researchers
  • Gain access to Deep Dives - evaluation of relevant Academic paper & books in today's narrative
  • Also gain access to Bilal’s Top Picks and Podcast Playlists through signing up
Have a Promotional Code? Click here to enter your code

Members

Product Total
Monthly  × 1 £39.00 / month with 1 month free trial
Subtotal £0.00
Total £0.00
Recurring totals
Subtotal £39.00 / month
Recurring total £39.00 / month
First renewal: 6th May 2020
Free one month trial period. After, you’ll be charged at the monthly rate unless you cancel your membership otherwise.
  • Pay with your credit card via Stripe.